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Дмитрий Леус уральские пельмени

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Mortgages: Both Sides of the Medal part 2 - Dmitry Leus

Part 1

Дмитрий Леус

Decades, not years
When taking the decision to apply for a mortgage, the first thing to assess is one’s own financial strength. A maximum of prudence should be used, as mortgages are serviced over decades.
However, according to the Head of Mortgage and Consumer Lending at SMP Bank, Natalia Konyakhina, the loan’s term can be determined by the borrower himself. “Basically, people take out a mortgage for 10 to 15 years and repay within 5 to 7 years”, she says. “The longer the term, the greater the interest premium paid to the bank, warns Dmitry Leus from . “If income allows it, I advise early mortgage repayment”.
When making a decision about buying a property with a mortgage, it is important not to be frightened. In fact, for most people mortgages are the only way to turn into home owners, without having to save up for years (and see these savings finally eroded by inflation). According to Dmitry Leus, mortgages are a time-tested, relatively comfortable, streamlined, and affordable tool to solve the housing question.
On the other hand, it would be misguided to take mortgages lightly. Repayment is mandatory and must be made on a regular basis, unless your home be repossessed. Accordingly, it is necessary to calculate what portion of family income can comfortably be spent on repayment - without living on bread and water.
What it takes
While deciding on a mortgage, it is not only the borrower who assesses his financial capacities. So does the bank...
“The borrower must have a stable job”, argues Natalia Konyakhina. It is a good sign if the borrower already owns an apartment, a secondary residence, a car, or any other assets of value. Equally important is a positive credit history”.
“An official proof of income is an icebreaker for most banks”, says Dmitry Leus. “However, even the existence of historical income figures as, for example, evidenced in an applicant’s official tax declaration, cannot guarantee that such income will always be available over the mortgage’s life”. Therefore banks are more and more often using internal questionnaires to document the income history of their potential clients. As a consequence, interest rates may be slightly higher.

The average borrower’s age is between 27 and 45, but the range may be wider. “Our applicants tend to be between 21 and 60 years old”, says Dmitry Leus.
Better not bet
Another important aspect worth consideration is the loan currency. “It is better to take out a mortgage in the currency of the borrower’s income, in order to avoid increased mortgage costs due to exchange rate fluctuations”, says Natalya Konyakhina.
“For borrowers with income in Russian roubles, the mortgage should, of course, only be taken in roubles”, agrees Sergey Arzyantsev. “It is nonsense to take a mortgage loan denominated in dollars/euros, thereby entering into a bet on whether the dollar/euro currency pair will weaken against the rouble”. “If the borrower's main income is in roubles, the mortgage should definitely be in roubles too”, confirms DmitryLeus from . “This will at least help avoid taking an unnecessary currency risk”. According to Dmitry Leus, it is important not to be naive about floating rate mortgage proposals, which are normally linked to such instruments as the MosPrime (Moscow Prime Offered Rate), or the Libor (London Interbank Offered Rate), or to the Central Bank’s own refinancing rate“. I am very cautious with regard to this option”, says Dmitry Leus. “Interest rates can only go up right now and, in general, when it comes to mortgages, exchange rate uncertainty is an undesirable additional burden for the borrower”.

On the other hand, by making a simple calculation, one can see that floating rate offers can look quite attractive. For example, one bank offers 9.75% for the first five years, and 4.5% above MosPrime (today at 6.64%) during the remaining years.
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Mortgages: Both Sides of the Medal - Dmitry Leus

Dmitry Leus

Dmitry Leus: “If income allows it, I advise early mortgage repayment”

Buying a property is certainly not a situation when one should “jump in feet first”, in particular when it comes to taking out a mortgage. Which are the main points potential mortgage buyers should keep in mind?
Suppose you decided to improve your housing situation: buy your own flat, move from a two-bedroom flat into a three-bedroom apartment, or move closer to the centre. The decision is taken..., but you cannot afford it. That is the exact moment when the concept of the mortgage comes to mind.
Some view mortgages as a form of modern enslavement but, honestly, saving millions is a difficult task for common mortals. Of course, mortgages have their advantages and disadvantages. There are a lot of small but important details borrowers should know in order to avoid trouble. One thing is clear - on your road to the paradise of home owners, do not stop at the first bank, and do not blindly agree to all conditions.
Take it or leave it
In summer 2011, the mortgage market was very attractive for borrowers - thousands of offers, promotions, discounts, as lenders competed to win over customers.
Then came fears over the possibility of a “second wave” of the crisis. And things on the mortgage market began to change...
Currently, banks have started to raise interest rates on loans, including mortgages. For the moment the increase is still small, not over 1 percent, but that may change...
“In the current macroeconomic environment, new home owners wishing to apply for a mortgage should act quickly”, recommends the Chairman of Dmitry Leus, justifying his position by expert opinion stating that interest rates are not expected to fall in the short to mid-term. Quite the opposite: “in fact, in crisis situations, banks not only tend to increase interest rates, but also to adopt more restrictive mortgage approval processes”, explains the banking specialist. “In other words, client applications run a greater risk of being rejected, as assumptions are tested against a more pessimistic scenario, and documentary evidence requirements with regard to client data such as income history undergo higher scrutiny”, says DmitryLeus.
“Many banks have begun to tighten credit conditions. This is the result of increased costs of credit resources. Better to jump on the bandwagon of low rates right now”, equally confirms Sergei Arzyantsev, Head of Mortgage Lending at Nomos Bank.


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Dmitry Leus: “Russian Regions is Our Means of Survival” 3

- I have often heard private bankers complain that the mortgage sector is an “unlevel” playing field. Do you agree that privately-owned and state banks are not competing at arm’s length?
- Dmitry Leus: I agree, but we should keep in mind that unequal conditions do not only prevail on the mortgage market. A big player such as Sberbank is able to provide SME lending at a rate of 8% p.a. whereas our average-weighted cost of funds ranges between 8.5 and 8.75%.
On the other hand, we have our own competitive advantages. We can afford to show flexibility when it comes to evidentiary requirements with regard to a client’s income. In addition, as a small bank, we can immediately adapt to sudden market changes. To turn around a big bank is something else. Our mortgage rates are therefore cheaper than Sberbank’s at the moment. This is because we were recently able to sell an important portfolio of securities, and have even excess liquidity now. These funds need to be invested somewhere, and this enables us to lend at lower margins.
Every international consultant will confirm that an ideal credit portfolio should have the following outlook: 50% of it should be invested into collateralized loans, 10-15% should be invested into consumer lending, or other high-yield credits, and 20-30% should be kept in treasury bonds or other safe-haven securities which can easily be sold or refinanced with the Central Bank.
- You have recently engaged in consumer lending. What has been your experience?
- Dmitry Leus: We had mortgage rates starting at 9.95% and noticed that some client agreed to these conditions. The average rate on the market is currently 10%. We can afford lower rates and have no plans to raise them because we dispose of sufficient liquidity. However, at some point we will nevertheless have to increase our rates, because the next wave of funding is likely to be more expensive. In any event, consumer loans are a good way of boosting our overall profitability
- There are many similar products on the market now.  What is your competitive advantage?
- Dmitry Leus: The most important thing in consumer lending is a good organization of sales, in addition to a high-quality client service. For instance, our “New Year’s Loan” is designed for people who cannot afford to buy Christmas presents for their beloved ones. What counts for such clients is the speed at which the loan is issued. They are not bothered by the fact that they will have to pay a premium of RUB 200 per month. We can offer a quick service if the client has good scores and underwriting results. The first criterion is credit scores. Some lenders get satisfied with good scores and will mechanically award the loan. For us, scoring is just the first step, the second step being underwriting. We may not have the lowest rates on the market, but in order to keep default rates low we put quality over volume.
- Let’s return to funding.  Is it correct to say that client deposits constitute about half of your liabilities?
- Dmitry Leus: Yes, we have more than RUB 9bn in deposits and an overall balance of RUB 18.5bn.
- At the same time, I understand you are not attracting clients by means of higher deposit rates. By which means do you attract them?
- Dmitry Leus: I have the impression that we have less and less people shopping around and going from bank to bank in search of the best interest rates.
- Well, I shop around...


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Инвестиции в «гадкого утёнка» - Дмитрий Исаакович Леус


30.11.2015
Банкрот, год назад казалось, что это слово подходит как нельзя лучше к компании Игоря Зюзина – «Мечел». У компании были гигантские долги, более 9 миллиардов долларов, показатель чистый долг/EBITDA зашкаливал за 10, кредиторы один за другим начали требовать возврата долгов в судебном порядке, подавая иски. Капитализация упала до уровня меньше 100 миллионов долларов, со своего пика в 18 миллиардов долларов. Цены на уголь и железную руду падали стремительно, не нащупывая дно и превосходя самые худшие ожидания аналитиков…
Но случилась девальвация рубля, и экономическая ситуация на предприятии начала кардинально меняться, потому что большая часть затрат у компании номинирована в рублях, а солидная часть продукции уходит на экспорт. К тому же компания завершила строительства универсального рельсобалочного стана на челябинском металлургическом комбинате. Начала добычу угля на новом Эльгинском угольном месторождении. И ситуация начала постепенно выправляться, акции компании резко подскочили с 11 до 100 рублей за одну обыкновенную акцию на спекулятивном спросе (см. рисунок №1).
Мечел - Дмитрий Леус
Мечел — Дмитрий Леус
Рисунок 1. Котировки акций Мечел обыкновенная в 2015 году.
Однако ситуация до сих пор не простая. Для того чтобы понять причину таких проблем надо сделать шаг назад в историю. На волне подъёме цен на сырьевые товары компания скупала, по большей части, зарубежные активы сомнительного качества, по завышенным ценам, от которых потом пришлось избавляться за мизерную стоимость, а долги-то остались. Плюс пришлось занимать у банков деньги на освоение Эльгинского угольного месторождения, строительства универсального рельсобалочного стана и модернизацию остального производства. На пике рыночных цен, менеджмент халатно отнесся к возможным рискам, за что компания и поплатилась, когда цены на продукцию в 2012 году начали снижаться, дойдя до того, что компании не хватало денег для погашения процентов по долгам, не говоря уже о самом долге. Также явно не способствовало и замедление темпов роста экономике в нашей стране, подливая масла в разгорающийся огонь.
С девальвацией рубля, у компании появился свет в конце тоннеля, правда очень-очень длинного ещё. Для того, чтобы как-то выправить ситуацию компания начала распродажу части активов, практически избавившись от больше части зарубежных заводов, сократив издержки на их содержание и немного уменьшив свой долг за счет этого.
Главной надеждой у Мечела связаны с Эльгинским угольным месторождением, содержащим более 2 млрд. тонн коксующегося угля, дефицитных марок, ежегодная добыча на котором, после выхода на проектную мощность составит около 30 миллионов тонн. Низкая себестоимость добычи открытым карьерным способом и близость к экспортным морским портам, делают этот актив очень ценным. Уже по итогам этого года добыча составит более 4 миллионов тонн, постепенно увеличивающая от месяца к месяцу. Для дальнейшего освоения, имеется открытая кредитная линия от ВЭБа, на сумму 2 млрд. долларов, которая сейчас заморожена до решения проблем с кредиторами.
А этим проблемы решаются. Уже подписаны соглашения с Газпромбанком и банком ВТБ, до конца года ожидается подписания со Сбербанком, основными кредиторами компании на реструктуризацию долгов, с заморозкой выплат до апреля 2017 года. Облигационные займы также были реструктуризированы. Общий долг сократился до 6,3 млрд. долларов по состоянию на сентябрь 2015 года.
Ещё один актив, который уже начал процесс отдачи, это универсальный рельсобалочный стан челябинского металлургического комбината мощность 1,1 млн. тонн продукции в год. Развитие БАМ и перспективы постройки ВСМ Москва – Казань, дают хорошие надежды на закупки рельсов со стороны РЖД, а при повышение ВВП в стране, и со стороны строительных компаний стоит ожидать закупки продукции.
Даже при таких ценах на сырье (уголь, железную руду, сталь) компания генерирует не плохой денежный поток уже сейчас, а если начнется новый экономический цикл в мире, то стоит ожидать подъёма цен на продукцию. Недавно Джордж Сорос купил крупный пакет акций одной американской угольной компании, уж он то точно знает когда надо покупать.
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